人类活动对江汉湖群时空演变影响及关联规则发现

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2018.06.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 湖泊是水资源中的重要组成部分.湖泊演变中同时存在增加和衰减两种状态，湖泊面积净变化是湖泊演变双向变化的结果.以江汉湖群为例，对1984—2014年间湖泊分布及演变与人类活动间的关联展开分析.结果表明，在1998年洪水后实施“退耕还湖”工程对湖泊保护与恢复有着积极作用.此外，引入空间自相关分析与热点探测方法对湖泊时空演变规律进行探索.比较了近30年来湖泊增长与衰亡的空间相关性，对表现为显著聚集特征的湖泊衰减现象进行热点探测，获取湖泊衰减聚集区的位置，并进一步探索其形成原因.最后，对社会经济要素与湖泊分布及衰减之间的关联规则进行挖掘，获取湖泊演变中所蕴含的社会经济规律，从而对江汉湖群的生态保护与修复工作提供决策辅助.结果表明，湖泊分布地区往往伴随着人口聚集，农业产量尤其是水产品生产水平位于区域前列.但随着现代化发展与农业结构调整，第一产业尤其是渔业的发展对当地湖泊资源的依赖逐渐减弱.湖泊衰减主要发生在以传统粗放型生产方式为主的农村地区，短时期内当地基础农业的快速发展需要以湖泊资源的过度开发利用为代价.

关键词: 江汉湖群, 湖泊演变, 人类活动, 空间聚集, 社会经济因素

Abstract: Lake is an important component of water resources. Lakes have two statusesexpanding and shrinking in the process of evolution, which and lead to neat changes in the area of lakes are the product of bidirectional changes caused by the evolution of the lakes. Taking Jianghan Lakes clusters as an example, the study conducts an analyzes sis of the correlation between distribution and evolution of lakes and human activities from 1984 to 2014. The results show that implementing the project of "returning farmland to lakes" played a positive role in protecting and recovering the lakes after the flood of 1998. In addition, spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot detection method were are introduced to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of lakes. The study carries out a hot-spot detection of lake shrinking showing conspicuous characteristics of aggregation by comparing spatial correlation between lake expanding and lake declining in recent 30 years to locate lake shrinking cluster area, and and further the forming reasons are further exploreds their forming reasons. At last, the study delves into the association rules between socio-economic factors and distribution and shrinking of lakes. By exploring the socio-economic regular patterns contained in the evolution of lakes, the decision-making assistance of ecological protection and restoration in Jianghan Basin can be summed up. The results show that lake distribution area is often accompanied by aggregation of population with agricultural yields, especially productivity of aquatic products, at the forefront in the region. But with the advancement of modernization and the adjustment of agricultural structure, primary industry, especially the growth of the fshing industry shows a weaken dependence on local lake resources. Lake shrinking mainly happens in rural areas featuring traditional extensive mode of production., And and rapid expansion of agriculture within a short time is generally at the cost of the overexploitation of lake resources.

Key words: human activity, spatial clustering, socioeconomic factor, Jianghan lake group, lake evolution

中图分类号:

TN911.73

冯莞舒, 冯存均, 陈江平. 人类活动对江汉湖群时空演变影响及关联规则发现[J]. 应用科学学报, 2018, 36(6): 958-968.

FENG Wan-shu, FENG Cun-jun, CHEN Jiang-ping. Effect of Human Activities and Association Rules Mining on Spatiotemporal Evolution in Jianghan Lake Group[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2018, 36(6): 958-968.

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