一种改进投影寻踪风险评估函数模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2019.01.011

应用科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 112-125.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2019.01.011

一种改进投影寻踪风险评估函数模型

钱龙霞¹, 张韧¹, 王红瑞², 侯太平¹

1. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 南京 211101;
2. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875

收稿日期:2016-07-16 修回日期:2018-01-31 出版日期:2019-01-31 发布日期:2019-01-31
作者简介:钱龙霞,博士,副教授,研究方向:水资源系统分析、风险评估,E-mail:qianlongxiawmx@163.com;张韧,教授,博导,研究方向:E-mail:zrpaper@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（No.51609254，No.51279006）资助

An Improved Project Pursuit Risk Assessment Function Model

QIAN Long-xia¹, ZHANG Ren¹, WANG Hong-rui², HOU Tai-ping¹

1. Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;
2. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2016-07-16 Revised:2018-01-31 Online:2019-01-31 Published:2019-01-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对投影寻踪模型存在的一些不足之处，改进发展了一种基于信息熵理论的投影寻踪风险评估模型.首先基于极差正规化方法对指标进行预处理以消除指标的量纲效应，保持指标的同趋势化.其次采用投影值的信息熵表示投影指标函数，基于最大熵原理估计最佳投影方向对指标进行降维处理，克服了传统投影指标函数在某些情形下无法准确刻画序列的变异程度.最后建立了S型风险评估函数模型，该函数具备单调性、有界性、变化的连续平稳性等性质.借助洪灾风险和联合作战海洋环境风险的评估实验得到的研究结果如下：与投影寻踪模型相比，改进投影寻踪模型对洪灾风险等级评估的改进幅度为7.0%~8.8%，对海洋环境风险评估的改进效果更加明显，改进幅度为27.1%~53.9%.

关键词: 熵, 投影指标函数, S型函数, 最佳投影方向, 最大熵原理

Abstract:

A model of project pursuit risk assessment is developed based on information entropy theory for dealing with the weakness of current project pursuit model. First, range normalization is performed to remove dimensional effect and keep the same trend for indicators. Second, the entropy of the projection value, which cannot describe sequence variations under some situations quantitatively, is applied to express the projection index function, and the optimal projection direction is estimated by the maximum entropy principle for dimension reduction. Finally, an S type risk assessment model is built and it characterized from the aspects of monotonicity, boundness, and continuous and smooth change. Two experiments about flood risk and marine environmental risk have been made. The results show that our model can improve the result of the project pursuit by between 7.0% and 8.8% for the flood risk, and have an evident improvement by between 27.1% and 53.9% for the marine environmental risk.

Key words: entropy, projection index function, maximum entropy principle, the best projection direction, S type function

中图分类号:

TV213

钱龙霞, 张韧, 王红瑞, 侯太平. 一种改进投影寻踪风险评估函数模型[J]. 应用科学学报, 2019, 37(1): 112-125.

QIAN Long-xia, ZHANG Ren, WANG Hong-rui, HOU Tai-ping. An Improved Project Pursuit Risk Assessment Function Model[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2019, 37(1): 112-125.

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一种改进投影寻踪风险评估函数模型

An Improved Project Pursuit Risk Assessment Function Model

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