将微博用户划分为无知者、传播者和拒绝者3种类型，结合微博网络消息传播实际情况，在经典传染病易感染-感染-治愈模型基础上，提出新的无知-传播-传播-拒绝模型. 详细描述了传播机制，并对模型的均场方程进行稳态分析. 由爬取到的上海典型大学新浪微博用户信息，构建符合真实网络统计性质的网络演化模型，并进行网络动力学分析. 仿真结果表明，较大的转发率 和较小的拒绝率可以提高微博消息的传播范围，多次转发率对传播节点密度也有一定的影响.
We divide microblog users into three types: uninformed, forwarder and rejecter,
and propose an uninformed-spreader-spreader-rejecter (ISSR) model based on the
real situation of message propagation in a microblog network and the classical epidemic
model susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR). The transmission mechanism is described in
detail. We also give a steady-state analysis of the mean-field equations of the model. The
network evolution model corresponding to the statistical property of real networks is built
based on the crawled information from Sina microblog users in Shanghai’s typical universities.
Dynamics of the networks is analyzed. Simulation results show a larger retweeting
rate and a smaller rejecting rate may improve the spreading range of the microblog
message. Meanwhile, the multiple retweeting rate
has a certain influence on the density of spreaders.
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