气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2016.06.007

应用科学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 713-723.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2016.06.007

气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估

杨理智¹, 张韧¹, 吴炎成², 葛珊珊¹, 刘君³

1. 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 南京 211101;
2. 63696部队航海部, 江苏江阴 214400;
3. 成都军区测绘信息中心, 成都 610000

收稿日期:2015-07-16 修回日期:2015-10-18 出版日期:2016-11-30 发布日期:2016-11-30
作者简介:杨理智,博士生,研究方向:海洋风险评估,E-mail:yangli199001@126.com;张韧,教授,博导,研究方向:海洋战略安全,E-mail:zrpaper@163.com

Safety Risk Analysis and Assessment of Climate Change on China's Maritime Energy Channel

YANG Li-zhi¹, ZHANG Ren¹, WU Yan-cheng², GE Shan-shan¹, LIU Jun³

1. Meteorological and Oceanographic Institution, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;
2. Navigation Department, Unit 63696, Jiangyin 214400, Jiangsu Province, China;
3. Surveying and Mapping Information Center, Chengdu Military Area Command, Chengdu 610000, China

Received:2015-07-16 Revised:2015-10-18 Online:2016-11-30 Published:2016-11-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对气候变化背景下海洋环境响应及其对海上能源通道安全的可能影响和潜在风险，引入了风险分析理论和模式识别方法，对中国海上能源通道安全的海洋环境气候变化响应和风险进行了研究. 基于可获取的历史数据资料及政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次报告中的气候变化情景预估，引入贝叶斯网络方法对当前及未来不同气候变化情景下海上能源通道安全风险进行了评估建模，旨在为应对气候变化和保障中国能源通道安全提供决策参考.

关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 海上能源通道, 气候变化, 风险评估

Abstract:

Due to the response of marine environment to the climate change, there may be some effect on the safety of maritime energy channel thus causing potential risk. This paper introduces a risk analysis theory and a pattern recognition method for studying the response and risk of marine environment of maritime energy channel. According to the historical data and climate change scenarios available in the fifth report of intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the paper uses a Bayesian network to establish a model of the present and future safety risk assessment for the maritime energy channel. The paper aims to offer decision-making reference for tackling climate change and securing our energy safety.

Key words: risk assessment, climate change, maritime energy channel, Bayesian network

中图分类号:

P467

杨理智, 张韧, 吴炎成, 葛珊珊, 刘君. 气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估[J]. 应用科学学报, 2016, 34(6): 713-723.

YANG Li-zhi, ZHANG Ren, WU Yan-cheng, GE Shan-shan, LIU Jun. Safety Risk Analysis and Assessment of Climate Change on China's Maritime Energy Channel[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2016, 34(6): 713-723.

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气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估

Safety Risk Analysis and Assessment of Climate Change on China's Maritime Energy Channel

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