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应用科学学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 107-112.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

广义加权函数平均组合预测模型及其应用

万玉成1,2, 盛昭瀚3   

  1. 1 东南大学经济管理学院 江苏南京 210096;
    2 空军后勤学院三系 江苏徐州 221002;
    3 南京大学管理科学与工程研究院 江苏南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-06 修回日期:2003-01-16 出版日期:2004-03-31 发布日期:2004-03-31
  • 作者简介:万玉成(1970),male,Jiangsu Tongshan,Ph.D.Candidate;盛昭瀚(1944-),male,Jiangsu Zhenjiang,Profes sor.

The Model of Generalized Weighted Functional Mean Combining Forecasting and Its Application

WAN Yu-cheng1,2, SHENG Zhao-han3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;
    2. No.3 Department, Air Force Logistics College, Xuzhou 221002, China;
    3. Graduate School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2002-11-06 Revised:2003-01-16 Online:2004-03-31 Published:2004-03-31

PDF

66

被引次数

3

摘要： 针对各种预测问题的实际情况,组合预测模型可以采用多种不同的组合形式.而不同的组合预测模型,其预测效果是不同的.给出一种新的组合预测模型——广义加权函数平均组合预测模型及其加权系数的参数估计方法.利用此模型对航材消耗进行预测,并以实例说明其预测效果

关键词: 广义加权函数平均, 参数估计, 航材消耗, 组合预测

Abstract: For the actual cases of various forecasting problems, combining forecasting models may take different forms. But their forecasting efficiencies may be different for the different models. In this paper, we present a new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional mean and the parameter estimation methods of its weighting coefficients. In final, we use this model to forecast air materiel consumption. And its efficiency is demonstrated by an example.

Key words: combining forecasting, air materiel consumption, generalized weighted functional mean, parameter estimation

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