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应用科学学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (6): 654-657.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

河川径流序列协整预测研究

畅明琦1,2, 刘俊萍3   

  1. 1. 西安理工大学水利水电学院, 陕西西安 710048;
    2. 山西省水资源研究所, 山西太原 030001;
    3. 浙江工业大学建筑工程学院, 浙江杭州 310014
  • 收稿日期:2004-04-02 修回日期:2004-09-03 出版日期:2005-11-30 发布日期:2005-11-30
  • 作者简介:畅明琦(1962-),男,山西万荣人,博士生,E-mail:cmq62@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079021)

A Study on the Cointegration Forecast of Runoff

CHANG Ming-qi1,2, LIU Jun-ping3   

  1. 1. Institute of Water Resources & Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China;
    2. Shanxi Institute of Water Resources, Taiyuan 030001, China;
    3. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China
  • Received:2004-04-02 Revised:2004-09-03 Online:2005-11-30 Published:2005-11-30

PDF

79

被引次数

4

摘要： 针对河川径流序列的非平稳性,将协整理论引入河川径流分析中,以建立可靠的数学模型.以黄河为例,通过单位根检验,协整检验,建立了上下游之间的误差校正模型,用于描述流域上下游径流间的协整关系,并初步建立协整预测模型,结果表明,预测模型是可行的.

关键词: 河川径流, 协整理论, 单位根, 误差校正

Abstract: A view of the nonstationary nature of runoff series, the cointegration theory is introduced into the analysis of runoff to establish reliable mathematical model.Taking the Yellow River as an example, through unit root testing and cointegration testing, the error correction model which can describe the cointegration relationship between the runoff of the upper and lower reaches is set up.In this way the initial cointegration forecasting model is set up.The results show that the forecasting model is feasible.

Key words: runoff, cointegration theory, unit root, error correction

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