关键词: 客流, 轨道交通网络平台, 直接网络外部性, 交叉网络外部性, 工具变量法

Abstract: Rail transit network is able to attract passenger flow from road network so as to help alleviating urban problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. From the perspective of network platform, this paper describes the state of passenger flow on rail transit network platform by constructing platform passenger flow model with utility function. Based on traffic data tracked in Shanghai, we have conducted the comparative analysis between direct-network and cross-network externalities and studied their impacts on the passenger flow of the platform. In the study, analytical methods including ordinary least squares, instrumental variable-two-stage least squares, heterogeneity analysis and robustness test are utilized. Research results show that the increase of station number exerts limited effects on passengers’ willingness to choose rail transit, and the current scale of passenger flow carried on Shanghai rail transit network platform has exceeded the optimal load of the platform, thus leading to a continuous loss of passengers.

Key words: passenger flow, rail transit network platform, direct-network externalities, cross-network externalities, instrumental variable method