收稿日期: 2015-07-16
修回日期: 2015-10-18
网络出版日期: 2016-11-30
Safety Risk Analysis and Assessment of Climate Change on China's Maritime Energy Channel
Received date: 2015-07-16
Revised date: 2015-10-18
Online published: 2016-11-30
杨理智, 张韧, 吴炎成, 葛珊珊, 刘君 . 气候变化对中国海上能源通道安全的影响与风险评估[J]. 应用科学学报, 2016 , 34(6) : 713 -723 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2016.06.007
Due to the response of marine environment to the climate change, there may be some effect on the safety of maritime energy channel thus causing potential risk. This paper introduces a risk analysis theory and a pattern recognition method for studying the response and risk of marine environment of maritime energy channel. According to the historical data and climate change scenarios available in the fifth report of intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the paper uses a Bayesian network to establish a model of the present and future safety risk assessment for the maritime energy channel. The paper aims to offer decision-making reference for tackling climate change and securing our energy safety.
Key words： risk assessment; climate change; maritime energy channel; Bayesian network
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