English

应用科学学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 639-645.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2010.06.014

• 控制与系统 • 上一篇    下一篇

用影响网分析复杂系统关键事件

杨翠蓉， 王明哲， 廖晶静   

  1. 华中科技大学控制科学与工程系，武汉430074
  • 收稿日期:2010-06-30 修回日期:2010-09-17 出版日期:2010-11-26 发布日期:2010-11-25
  • 作者简介:杨翠蓉，博士生，研究方向：复杂系统集成优化控制，E-mail：kesty@tom.com；王明哲，教授，博导，研究方向：集成系统体系结构、智能决策与控制、离散事件系统，E-mail: wangmzhe@netease.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(No.60874068)资助

Analysis of Key Events in Complex Systems Using Influence Nets

YANG Cui-rong, WANG Ming-zhe, LIAO Jing-jing   

  1. Department of Control Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China  
  • Received:2010-06-30 Revised:2010-09-17 Online:2010-11-26 Published:2010-11-25

PDF

1434

被引次数

6

摘要：

为分析复杂系统关键事件，将系统事件序列图转换为影响网图，通过着色Petri网进行建模和仿真，采用影响网分析系统事件的敏感性并搜索关键事件集合. 统计着色Petri网模型的仿真输出结果，得出事件发生的条件概率和基准概率，将影响强度与条件概率值的关系线性化，从而推算出影响强度. 该方法避免了影响强度、基准概率等参数由专家指定存在的主观性. 以弹道导弹防御系统为例进行分析，结果表明所述方法直观实用，对复杂系统的决策有一定的参考价值.

关键词: 仿真模型；关键事件；着色Petri网；影响网；影响强度

Abstract:

To analyze key events of complex systems, the event sequence diagram is translated to an influence network. By colored petri net (CPN) modeling and simulation, the influence network is used to analyze sensitivity of the system events and search key event sets. According to the output of the CPN model, conditional probability and baseline probability are obtained statistically. The relationship between causal strength and conditional probability is linearized to obtain the causal strength value objectively. We apply the proposed method in a ballistic missile defense system. The results show that the method is straightforward and practical. It is useful in decision-making of complex simulation systems.

Key words: simulation model, key events, colored petri net (CPN), influence nets, causal strength

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