基于最优样本子集的在线模糊LSSVM混沌时间序列预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2013.04.012

应用科学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 411-417.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0255-8297.2013.04.012

基于最优样本子集的在线模糊LSSVM混沌时间序列预测

温祥西，孟相如，李明迅

空军工程大学信息与导航学院，西安710077

收稿日期:2011-08-12 修回日期:2012-04-02 出版日期:2013-07-27 发布日期:2012-04-02
作者简介:温祥西，博士生，研究方向：网络故障预测与健康管理，E-mail: wxxajy@163.com；孟相如，教授，博导，研究方向：宽带通信网络技术、网络故障诊断等，E-mail: xrmeng@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(No.61003252)；全军军事学研究生课题(No.2011JY002-524)；空军工程大学创新基金(No.201105)资助

Chaotic Time Series Prediction Based on Optimal Training Subset Online Fuzzy LSSVM

WEN Xiang-xi, MENG Xiang-ru, LI Ming-xun

Institute of Information and Navigation, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710077, China

Received:2011-08-12 Revised:2012-04-02 Online:2013-07-27 Published:2012-04-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 提出一种基于最优样本子集的在线模糊最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LSSVM) 混沌时间序列预测方法. 算法选择与预测样本时间上以及欧氏距离最近的样本点构成最优样本子集，并采用" 不敏感函数对其进行模糊化处理，通过模糊LSSVM 训练获得预测模型. 随着时间窗口的滑动，最优样本子
集和预测模型实时更新，模型更新采用分块矩阵方法降低运算复杂度. 实验中对时变Ikeda 序列进行预测，表明所提出的方法与离线和在线LSSVM 相比，训练速度更快，预测精度更高.

关键词: 混沌时间序列, 在线预测, 最优样本子集, 模糊逻辑, 支持向量机

Abstract: An optimal training subset online fuzzy least squares support vector machine (OTSOF-LSSVM) is proposed for chaotic time series prediction. Samples nearest to the prediction sample in both time and space are chosen to form the optimal training subset. An "-insensitive function is introduced to formulate the fuzzy membership. Thus a prediction model is established by fuzzy LSSVM. The subset and model are updated with the moving time window. Computational complexity is reduced by matrix partitioning. Experiment of predicting the time-variant chaotic time series Ikeda shows that the proposed method has better accuracy and high training speed as compared to offline and online LSSVM.

Key words: chaotic time series, online prediction, optimal training subset, fuzzy-logic, support vector machine(SVM)

中图分类号:

TP27

温祥西，孟相如，李明迅. 基于最优样本子集的在线模糊LSSVM混沌时间序列预测[J]. 应用科学学报, 2013, 31(4): 411-417.

WEN Xiang-xi, MENG Xiang-ru, LI Ming-xun. Chaotic Time Series Prediction Based on Optimal Training Subset Online Fuzzy LSSVM[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2013, 31(4): 411-417.

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基于最优样本子集的在线模糊LSSVM混沌时间序列预测

Chaotic Time Series Prediction Based on Optimal Training Subset Online Fuzzy LSSVM

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